martedì 16 aprile 2013

Non c’è da esitare

Paul Krugman, ieri: "when can we all admit that the euro is a failure? The answer, of course, is never. Too much history, too many declarations, too much ego is invested in the single currency for those involved ever to admit that maybe they made a mistake. Even if the project ends in total disaster, they will insist that the euro didn’t fail Europe, Europe failed the euro".
"Quando ammetteremo tutti che l'euro è un fallimento? la risposta, naturalmente, è mai. Troppa storia, troppe dichiarazioni, troppo ego sono stati investiti da chi è coinvolto nel progetto moneta unica per ammettere che forse è stato un errore. Perfino se il progetto termina in un disastro totale, insisteranno che non è vero che l'euro non è risultato adeguato all'Europa: l'Europa non è risultata adeguata all'euro".

Che livello di disastro occorrerà perchè si verifichi la rottura dell’euro ? come evitare che ci si arrivi ?

Esiste una riforma MORBIDA che risolve i problemi strutturali dell'euro e permette perfino agli organi dell’Unione Europea, alla BCE, ai politici di salvare la faccia. Perché è una riforma, non è la scomparsa dell’euro. Le UE per prima, in effetti, ha disperato bisogno di una proposta come questa

Se (ad esempio) 163 parlamentari M5S che rappresentano il 25% dell'elettorato italiano la adottano come punto principale del loro programma economico, immediatamente ci sarà risonanza a livello mondiale, ne parleranno tutti i principali economisti mondiali, NESSUNO POTRA' PIU' IGNORARE CHE LA SOLUZIONE ESISTE.

6 commenti:

  1. Re your plea that the EMS can and must be reformed, don't hold your breathe!

    At last we have a currency that cannot and will not be devalued just to suit politicians and debtors. Hurrah for that.

    Economic reality is tough eh? Bad debts written off, banks and countries going bust. But the currency protected for the benefit of all.

    Happy news indeed. Socialists don't like it, hard luck.

    1. You may not believe it, but expanding the supply of money(or monetary equivalents) in a depressed economy lifts employment and GDP, not inflation. And who does an unrealistically strong currency protect ? not even the creditors. Ultimately as you said "bad debts" (who were presumably born as good, or at least not-too-bad, credits...) get written off...

  2. SugarLover, many people thought like you, but ultimately they agreed with Marco. You see, currencies are not designed to hoard fortunes, but for moving the economy. Today, in most countries, even in communist ones like China and Vietnam, anybody who wants to hoard fortunes can change (weak) money for strong currencies, commodities (gold, diamonds etc), assets, stocks, pieces of art etc. Oh, yes, they must know even strong currencies or the price of commodities could fall, so don't believe all stories told by forex commercials..there are also many dark forex stories, untold ones, with people who lost all their savings betting on gold, swiss francs etc.

    China's long growth was/is still possible exactly because of a deliberately weak currency, which boosts its exports and cut its imports. The euro is strong, but weaker than the former DM. Why do you think Germany is very satisfied with the euro and gladly abandoned its strong DM? Thus Germany shares the same currency with weaker economies, but without paying a normal compensation, as the same Germany pays for its Eastern side (the former GDR) = trillions of euros! This situation makes Germany extremely rich and allows it to claim the famous way of austerity, which is good for Germany exactly because there are enough schmucks (Italy, Greece, Cyprus, Spain, Slovenia etc) who fell into Germany's trap= the euro. Thanks to the common Euro Germany's exports became cheaper, while Italy's exports became more expensive! Inside a normal common monetary area there are compensations (fiscal transfers) which correct this situation = common pensions, unemployment benefits, wages for federal/national employees (the military, the police, motorway/railway/post workers etc), exactly like the West Germany still pays for the East Germany.
    Of course Mrs. Merkel is very satisfied because there are enough 'useful idiots' in the southern Europe to support der Deutsche Euro= a mortal trap for the less developed countries of Europe.

    Yes, many years ago most currencies were backed by gold, but please visualize the global image at the time: 1.because of the gold standard most countries protected themselves with huge custom taxes, 2, central banks, unable to print money at will as today, were unable also to give guarantees upon bank deposits. I'm a big fan of famous coach John Robert Wooden. Well, in the early 1930s, John Wooden lost all his life savings, because his bank had just got bankrupted exactly the day he wanted to withdraw his money. His gold-valued savings i mean. His savings were gold-valued but gone forever. At the time bank accounts were unprotected agains bankruptcy.

    And about socialism. What do you know about it? I used to live in the SOCIALIST Republic of Romania for 22 years so I know a 'bit' the real socialism. The Socialist Romania was the perfect example of austerity, a dream for Mrs. Merkel (who was raised during a socialist regime too!).

    Those who think the socialism means laziness, social protection, welfare are perfectly wrong. While people in West worked already only 5 days/week, we worked 6-7 days/week in socialist Romania. Unemployment benefit in socialist Romania? Zero. Minimum wage? Zero = children in schools, soldiers, students in universities were sent to work for free in fields, construction sites, factories, even in mines (soldiers). Socialist Romania paid all its IMF debts by march 1989, while Poland's debts were written off 50% in 1991 (the USA demanded a 80% reduction!) Polish debt at the time = US$ 33 billion, when a flat in Poland cost US$1000. = that 50% write-off was a gift of a half flat for every Pole = a flat to every family in Poland.

    How the Socialist Republic of Romania paid that debt? By austerity, exactly like Germany asks now to the whole Europe. I used to learn in cold classrooms, food was scarce, transportation limited, very small wages, no allowances.

    1. Thank you for this Laurentiu ! The current euro system is what is bringing about socialism: not in the sense of solidarity and fair distribution of wealth and income. NO: the bloody, awful version of "socialism" that Eastern Europeans know too well (1945-1989).

  3. Una notizia dalla Romania: il governo romeno ha rinviato a tempo indeterminato il passaggio all'euro. In ogni caso, l'euro non sara adottato in Romania prima del 2020, invece del 2015, il termine precedente.